In this article we will review the J Curve theory discussed by Ian Bremmer and how this can be viewed in a personal and spiritual context.
What is the J-Curve?
It resembles the Nike Swoosh and, at a subtle level, even teaches Nike’s famous message: ‘Just Do It’.
The J Curve is so named because visually it looks like the letter ‘J’ and is used as a graphical representation of ideas in a variety of fields: medicine, economics, private equity, country status and political science. It takes various forms as shown in the diagrams below.
Stability vs Openness
In his thought-provoking book The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall, political analyst Ian Bremmer proposes the J Curve as a model to describe the stability of countries with respect to their openness.
A plot of the stability of a nation in the face of internal and external shocks on the Y-axis against its political and economic openness results in a J-shaped graph with the following characteristics:
-
Totalitarian states, such as, Iran, North Korea and Saudi Arabia are on the left of the curve and enjoy a moderate level of stability, due to their authoritarian controls.
-
On the extreme right of the curve are highly open and highly stable countries such as USA, UK, Germany and other established democracies.
-
The right side of the curve results in greater stability if openness is achieved. However, authoritarian countries on the left do attain a modest level of stability due to the controls they impose. Yet these same controls limit the level of stability that is achieved in these countries.
-
The slope on the left side is much steeper than on the right. This means that open societies on the right are very stable and would require tremendous disruptive forces to destabilize them. In contrast, however, autocratic regimes may be stable at any particular point in time, but are fragile and susceptible to becoming rapidly unstable. sudden challenge from internal or external forces can readily disrupt the status quo, leading to disorder and confusion and a swift decline in stability.
-
The path from a stable, yet fragile, closed society to a more stable and resilient society is not linear. The period of transition is characterized by a dip in the curve (the dipping point), signifying greater instability. During this period, if the authoritarian regime loses patience and courage, it may forego the potential benefits of long-term stability in an attempt to regain short-term stability by re-imposing its autocratic controls and thus scamper back up the left side of the curve to a position of reduced openness but short-term stability. Thus, this inevitable dip needs to be prudently negotiated.
There are many factors which contribute to the openness or otherwise of a country, and hence its stability. Democracy is not the only factor, as Ian Bremmer writes, “History, geography, culture and other factors give each state its own particular strengths and vulnerabilities. As a consequence, each state has its own J Curve, though each curve retains the same basic shape.”
Now let us consider how the J Curve can be applied to spirituality in individuals.
Spirituality and the J Curve
Imagine a plot of inner peace and happiness on the vertical (y) axis against observance of spiritual disciplines and faith in God on the horizontal (x) axis. Such a plot would likely resemble a J curve with a steep left side, trough and a shallower but higher right side.
A person who transgresses spiritual codes or does not have faith in God may feel a certain level of inner peace or happiness, but will never reach the level of peace or happiness experienced by one who abides by spiritual codes and has faith in God.
The former has achieved a type of stability that is dependent on perishable, ever-changing material factors and is thus subject to rapid destabilization when these factors are disturbed. For example, a person may be dependent on material pleasures from which a certain level of enjoyment is experienced. But when such pleasures are not available there is likely to be a rapid decline in personal stability and loss of inner peace. This is similar to the situation of authoritarian states that are liable to descend into chaos due to disruptive forces that challenge their autocratic methods.
On the other hand, a person on the right side of the J Curve may encounter disturbances in life, but the steadying power of faith absorbs such disruption and limits the loss of inner peace just as a right side of the J Curve country is able to withstand internal and external shocks.
So, for a non-spiritual person on the left of the curve to develop the spirituality which will raise the level of inner peace and happiness the transition dip has to be successfully negotiated.
The success or failure of this change is determined by patient, persistent pursuit and proper implementation of the necessary factors.
On the left side of the curve, materially minded people who courageously persist and decide to battle through the inner turmoil encountered during the period of transition emerge on the right side and benefit from higher levels of inner peace and personal stability.
To aid this transition it is important to remain in the appropriate company.
Bremmer mentions, “A state with no stability is a failed state; it can neither implement nor enforce government policy. Such a country can fragment, it can be taken over by outside forces, or it can descend into chaos.”
This happened to Somalia in 1991 when rival tribes tried to oust the dictator and fought each other. This in-fighting resulted in half a million deaths and 750,000 refugees. Further, in August 2005 South Africa expressed concern about the possibility of neighbouring Zimbabwe becoming such a failed state. Since, as Bremmer points out, “When state failure strikes your neighbour, the resulting chaos can undermine your stability as well, as refugees, armed conflict, and disease spill across borders.”
Similarly, avoiding the company of spiritually failed persons is essential to preserving one’s inner peace and happiness. Moreover, the company of spiritually successful people will help one to successfully weather the turmoil of the transition dip and attain greater peace and happiness. In short, the company one keeps is an important contributing factor to one’s own failure or success.
Bhagwan Swaminarayan emphasizes this point in Vachanamrut Gadhada I 70, “By avoiding the company of external kusangis (read, ‘failed’ people) and by keeping the company of only the Sant (read, ‘spiritually successful’ people) residing externally, the force of the kusangis decreases and force of the Sant increases.”
It is during this critical, make or break, transition period that the right support is essential. If such support is not attained, a person is likely to revert to the previous state of material indulgence – a state in which he feels at ease, but will not experience long-term inner peace.
Overcoming Addictions
A person dependent on alcohol, drugs, tobacco and other addictive substances lies on the left of the curve, feeling a certain, though limited and fragile, level of happiness. When the substances that sustain this joy are denied – that is, there is a disruptive force – such a person rapidly descends into inner turmoil. If such a person resolves to become free of these addictive substances, it will be necessary to face the period of transition with courage and determination, as well as appropriate moral and social support. If there is a lack of such courage and determination (internal factors) or support (external factors), the person is likely to revert to dependence on addictive substances.
It is of long-term benefit to such individuals, and their families that they shed such addictive habits. They are aware of the fact that freedom from such habits results in greater joy and a more stable life – just as autocratic countries know that open societies are more stable.
Discussion
Each individual has to make a choice. Are they prepared to struggle through the dip and emerge on the other side where they will reap more and better rewards or will they give up and return to their previous state? The J Curve is thus a useful model helping one to visualize the joy of life. Its warning about potential pitfalls of the transition dip enables appropriate preparation to prevent failure.
So, to return to the Nike Swoosh and its famous catchphrase, once one’s goal for attaining greater peace and happiness is set, one has to surmount all problems and do whatever is necessary. That is, one must ‘Just Do It’.